Axtria Insights

Axtria Insights

CASE STUDY
Major Accounts’ Probability of Exceeding Goals

Situation

  • About 15,000 hemophiliacs nationwide depend on Product X and its in-class competitors for treatment
    • Patients are generally loyal to the agents they are on
    • Switches in this market are relatively rare
    • According to redistribution data, Product X  appears to have more or less stabilized
  • Challenging goals were set to three major Product X accounts:
    • Accredo, ASD Healthcare, Caremark
    • All three given 20xx growth rate of 20% based on last six months of 20aa annualized
  • Question: how likely are the three accounts to generate enough growth to meet their collective  20xx goal?

Approach

  • As a limited number of patients are available for switches, first approach to gauge how achievable the 20% growth objective is would be to translate the 20% to new patients and compare to an estimate of available switch patients in the whole Xyntha market
    • Need to collect data necessary to perform comparison
  • Adopted approach relies solely on historical redistribution data for the three accounts
    • No particular account knowledge available to judge accounts’ ability to enroll additional patients in enough numbers to meet set goals

We applied following methodology:

  • Step one: forecast each account using available monthly redistribution data
    • As monthly data is spiky, implemented an adjustment to normalize for the   different number of business days in the months tracked
  • Step two: obtain  confidence intervals for each forecast, by month
    • In other words, given the forecast for a month, obtain upper and lower limits associated with set probabilities that the forecast falls between the limits
    • This step yields an approximation of the cumulative distribution function associated with the forecast of each month, for each of the accounts
  • Step three: build a simulation model using the cumulative distribution functions of Step 2 to estimate the probability distribution function for the ‘Redistribution IU’s’ of the total of the three accounts
    • Yields estimate how likely it is that the 20% growth objective, for the three accounts collectively, will be met

Major Accounts Probability Of Exceeding Goals


Result

  • The last six months of 20zz yielded a total of 20,947,499 IU’s
  • Based on 20% growth target relative to last six months of 20zz annualized, the 20xx IU target for the three accounts is: 50,273,998 IU’s. Jan-Mar 20xx came in at 10,570,553 IU’s
  • The following table summarizes the results of the forecast and simulation models

Major Accounts Probability Of Exceeding Goals