Axtria Insights

Axtria Insights

CASE STUDY
Pipeline Line Extension to Market Leader Going LOE Impact of Tier Status on Share

Situation

  • Line extension to a Market Leader about to go generic
  • Existing co-promote deal with existing budget goals
  • Request to confirm forecast to finalize sales force size,  structure, and goals, and to develop market access strategy
  • Three weeks turnaround
  • Three years exclusivity makes launch uptake more important than for other new products
  • Market Leader on Tier 2 for the vast majority of lives (> 95%) with a market share of 52%
    • Hard to estimate effect of T3 status
    • Line extension to face market leader going generic few months into launch
  • Some Market Research and some Market Access information ‘dug up’ for use in estimating Market Access impact

Approach

  • Decision Tree used to incorporate available Market Research and Market Access assumptions - remaining assumptions filled through consensus

    Pipeline Line Extension Going Loe Impact of Tier Status on Share

  • Follow-on Tier Status Effect
  • Built Patient Based Forecast that accounts for:
    • Moderate/severe  continuing  Market Leader patients
    • Tier status of patient formulary
    • Likelihood physician prescribing and patient filling Rx given Tier status
  • Assumed uptake of patient enrolment based on Keppra XR analogue
    • Levels in about 18 months
  • Bridged to TRx forecast based on Market Leader adherence
    • Adjusted down for higher drop out rate in clinical trial vs. Market Leader patients
  • Calibrated resulting TRx forecast to meet national forecast
  • Resulting model useful to:
    • Estimate effect of Tier status on market share
    • Help optimize objectives at the plan level
    • With vetted model parameters , optimize objectives and aggregate  plans to inform  national level forecast

Pipeline Line Extension Going Loe Impact of Tier Status on Share


Result

  • At launch, share assumed to follow T3 curve
  • When T2 decision is implemented, plan share moves to T2 curve over the following 4 quarters