This white paper investigates the research framework to model the expected effects of the decline in health outcomes caused by a decrease in the quantity and quality of pharmaceutical utilization due to the economic effects of a deep and long recession. Four effects caused by a deep recession that will adversely affect the utilization of branded/biologic drugs, which, in turn, will cause a decrease in patient health outcomes, are reviewed: 1) market access, 2) plan control/design, 3) affordability, and 4) government control (state Medicaid). This paper will close by addressing five actions pharma companies need to take in response to these adverse effects on patient health outcomes: 1) understand managed market effects, 2) predict in real-time future local economic conditions, 3) provide information and assistance that will improve long-term patient adherence, 4) create a robust analytical capability to produce actionable business insights in real-time, and 5) develop an efficient data management structure to support analytical capabilities.
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