What Analytical Techniques Should Pharma Companies Implement To Estimate And Forecast COVID-19 Effects When Recovery Is Geographically Uneven?

Hope for a strong and quick recovery from the COVID-19 induced U.S. recession became more uncertain with the dramatic and historic decline in Q2 2020 U.S. GDP. There are also economic signs that a full economic recovery to pre-pandemic levels is still elusive. Continued economic uncertainty remains. Further, while the resurgence of COVID-19 cases seen in many states this past June, especially in the south, seems to have abated, there still exists significant geographic variations around the country in the extent of and policies in effect to control the virus.

The Federal Reserve has noted the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. These economic and COVID-19 case developments give further credibility to an “accordion” or sustained W-shaped recovery, and that any economic recovery will be uneven across the U.S. as the control of COVID-19 cases significantly varies around the country. Thus, any national-level brand analysis will mask critical subnational variations in the economic recovery due to differences in the status of COVID-19 cases.

This white paper reviews the importance of companies conducting subnational econometric analysis on drug demand estimation and forecasting. Companies need to understand these effects on brand performance given a longer and geographically uneven economic recovery and other impacts due to COVID-19.

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